Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gases are gases such as CO₂ (Carbon Dioxide), CH4 (Methane), N2O (Nitrous Oxide), and H2O (Water Vapour) which can absorb infrared radiation from the sun causing the warming greenhouse effect.
Without greenhouse gases, the Earth’s temperature will be at minus-degree Celsius levels which will be too cold to be habitable. On the other hand, having too much of these greenhouse gases will have a warming effect that makes the Earth too hot to be habitable.
The Earth is now facing the problem of emitting too much of these greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. CO₂ is the primary greenhouse gas.
How much CO₂ have we emitted so far?
According to Our World in Data, the world emitted 6 billion tonnes of CO₂ in the year 1950, since then CO₂ emissions have increased to reach 22 billion tonnes in the year 1990. The world now emits more than 34 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year.
The Global Carbon Project, an international scientific community, has found that the atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ are more than 46% higher than pre-industrial levels and continue to accumulate at a speed 10 times faster than any time in the past 66 million years.
The Biggest CO₂ Emitters
Which country is the biggest CO₂ emitter?
Both the US and China!
How so?
The US emitted the most cumulative CO₂ between 1850 and 2021 (see Figure 1), whereas China emitted the most CO₂ in 2020, at 31% of total global CO₂ emissions (see Figure 2).
Figure 1 shows that the US emitted more than 500 billion tonnes of atmospheric CO₂ between 1850 and 2021, almost 2 times that emitted by China, the second biggest cumulative emitter, and almost 3 times that emitted by Russia, the third biggest cumulative emitter in the same period.
Figure 2 shows that the US had started to reduce its CO₂ emissions since 2005. Nevertheless, the US still emitted 4.7 billion tonnes of atmospheric CO₂ in 2020, about 14% of global total CO₂ emissions.
Both the US and China have a moral obligation to the rest of the world to lead and work collaboratively to reduce atmospheric CO₂.
The US has pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This is good, but this also means that the US will continue to emit CO₂ into the atmosphere between now and 2050 until it reaches net-zero carbon emissions in the year 2050.
Figure 2 shows China had taken over the US as the biggest CO₂ emitter from the year 2005. In 2020 China alone emitted 31% of the global total CO₂ emissions, well ahead of the US, the second biggest emitter that emitted about 14% of the global total CO₂ emissions.
China is projected to emit more and more atmospheric CO₂, more than 10.7 billion tonnes every year, until 2030 when China’s CO₂ emissions are expected to reach their peak levels. This means China’s share of global CO₂ emissions in percentage terms will increase every year to more than 31% from 2020 onwards.
China has pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. Just imagine how many more billions of tonnes of atmospheric CO₂ China will emit between now and 2060.
Figure 2 shows that Japan and the EU countries have started to reduce their CO₂ emissions. That is a good trend but that also means they will continue to emit atmospheric CO₂ until they reach net-zero.
India is another country that has been increasing its CO₂ emissions every year. From 7% in 2020, India’s share of global CO₂ emissions in percentage terms will increase every year after 2020. India has pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. Image how many more billions of tonnes of atmospheric CO₂ India will emit between now and 2070.
More Extreme Weather Events
Our scientists have been warning that global warming caused by greenhouse gases will make the weather increasingly more extreme.
Yes, if you follow the news around the world, the Earth is experiencing more deadly extreme weather events on every continent.
In Australia, the bushfires between September 2019 and March 2020 have killed 1 billion wild animals, burnt down thousands of homes and buildings, as well as 186,260 KM2 of vegetated land, equivalent to an area around 2.7 times Tasmania, or around 6 times Taiwan, or around 250 times Singapore! You might have been horrified by the images of koalas and kangaroos running for their lives hopelessly in the bushfires on TV.
In India, the heatwaves between March and May 2022 heated Delhi to a record high of 49 degrees C, far exceeding the previous highest-ever temperature of 45.6 degrees C in 1941. 2 months later in July 2022, floods hit both India and Bangladesh and killed many people and displaced millions of people.
In the same month, the southern part of China was flooded from the heaviest rainfall in decades. Remarkedly at the same time, the northern part of China was hit by heat waves. These extreme weathers have significantly affected grain, rice, corn, and vegetable crops in China.
How much more frequent will extreme weather events take place in the next 10-20 years when the world continues to emit billions of tonnes of atmospheric CO2?
Net-Negative versus Net-Zero
According to the United Nations climate change webpage, more than 70 countries, including the biggest CO₂ emitters – China, the US, and the EU – have set a net-zero target, covering about 76% of global emissions.
More than 1,200 companies, more than 1,000 cities, more than 1,000 educational institutions, and more than 400 financial institutions have pledged to take rigorous actions to halve global emissions by 2030.
However, even with these pledges, the world will continue to emit billions of tonnes of atmospheric CO2 over the next 10-20 years.
In the coming years, the impacts of extreme weather events on energy security, food security, water security, and biodiversity will force many countries to intensify their climate change actions to reduce global warming.
To reach net-zero by 2050 is no longer enough. Reaching net-negative by 2040, 10 years before 2050, shall be the new target.
Yes, all the countries in the world shall set out plans and take more rigorous actions to reach net-negative by 2040, that is, they have to remove more atmospheric CO2 than what they emit by 2040, 10 years before 2050.
The top emitters and the developed countries that are primarily responsible for CO₂ already in the atmosphere must lead and do more to save the Earth.
Why?
Firstly, since they are emitting more atmospheric CO₂ so they will make a significant difference in reducing global warming if they succeed.
Secondly, they have moral obligations, the resources, and the financial means to take rigorous and effective actions.
It is to safeguard the Earth for food security, water security, energy security, and biodiversity preservation for future generations of humanity.
“Earth-Protector” Countries
Let’s call the countries that pledge net-negative targets by 2040 the “Earth-Protector” aspirants.
Countries can aim to be 1-Star, 2-Star, 3-Star, 4-Star, or 5-Star “Earth-Protector” aspirants depending on their net-negative aspirations.
- 1-Star “Earth-Protector” aspirant – The country that pledges net-negative by 2040.
- 2-Star “Earth-Protector” aspirant – The country that pledges net-negative by 2040 and removes the total amount of atmospheric CO₂ emitted by that country since 2020.
- 3-Star “Earth-Protector” aspirant – The country that pledges net-negative by 2040 and removes the total amount of atmospheric CO₂ emitted by that country since 2010.
- 4-star “Earth-Protector” aspirant – The country that pledges net-negative by 2040 and removes the total amount of atmospheric CO₂ emitted by that country since 2000.
- 5-Star “Earth-Protector” aspirant – The country that pledges net-negative by 2040 and removes the total amount of atmospheric CO₂ emitted by that country since industrialisation.
From “Earth-Protector” aspirant to “Earth-Protector”
Many countries find it so difficult to achieve net-zero targets, is it even feasible for them to achieve net-negative?
Well, 3 countries have already achieved net-negative CO₂ emissions.
Bhutan, Suriname, and Panama are the 3 countries that are currently net carbon negative, according to Reuters. These countries are probably also the 5-Star “Earth-Protector” Countries because they have been net-negative for many years, probably since industrialisation.
The world should praise Bhutan, Suriname, and Panama as good role models and inspirations for other countries. Why not use Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) meetings to honour their efforts? Why not let them share their net-negative journey, knowledge, and experience in the COP meetings?
“Earth-Protector” Aspirants
Finland, a developed nation, passed the law in May 2022 for the country to be the first developed country to reach net-zero by 2035 and net carbon negative by 2040. Finland has declared to be a 1-Star “Earth-Protector” aspirant and should be praised and honoured.
Uruguay, Austria, Iceland, Germany, and Sweden have all pledged to reach net-zero by or before 2045. Can they go one step further to pledge to be net-negative by 2040 like Finland, and be a 1-Star “Earth-Protector” aspirant?
The Australian State of Tasmania has been net carbon negative for 7 consecutive years between 2014 and 2020, according to the Tasmanian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report 2022.
Tasmania’s emissions have dropped by 120% between 1990 and 2020. What a remarkable achievement!
Tasmania has achieved net carbon negative by increased use of renewables and good forest management practices that have resulted in a decreased area of native forests logged for pulpwood production.
Tasmania is therefore a 2-Star “Earth-Protector” and should continue to work to move to be 3-Star, 4-Star, and eventually 5-Star “Earth-Protector”.
We need the top 10 CO₂ emitting countries that are responsible for 90% of CO₂ emissions to join these countries and states to have a significant impact on CO₂ emissions reduction.
What about the cities?
Many global cities are doing their part. Copenhagen, Glasgow, and Stockholm are member countries of the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance (CNCA), a collaboration of cities working to achieve carbon neutrality in the next 10-20 years well before 2050. Copenhagen aims to be the first carbon-neutral capital by 2025. Glasgow is committed to becoming a net-zero-carbon city by 2030. Stockholm aims to be fossil-fuel-free by 2040.
In the coming COP27 in November 2022 Egypt, why not hear from Bhutan, Suriname, Panama, and the state of Tasmania that have done well in their net-negative journeys as lessons learned and inspirations for the rest of the world?
What about companies?
Microsoft has committed to being carbon negative and removing all the carbon which the company and its suppliers have emitted since its founding in 1975.
Microsoft’s commitments cover (1) Scope 1 direct CO2 emissions from Microsoft’s offices, factories, and vehicles, etc. it owned directly; (2) Scope 2 indirect CO2 emissions from electricity purchased and used by Microsoft; and (3) Scope 3 CO2 emissions which are all other indirect emissions associated with all of Microsoft’s supply chain activities in the provision of Microsoft’s products and services.
Microsoft has set an intermediate target of reducing all direct and indirect CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030 and eventually removing all CO2 emitted since its founding by 2050. If successful, Microsoft will have zero carbon footprint.
Ikea is understood to taking similar actions.
We hope more companies would follow similar paths in the coming years.
The Sun – The Source of All Clean Energies
The sun will always shine on some parts of the Earth.
It is the sun that heats the air to eventually create wind energy. It is the sun that evaporates water to eventually give rise to hydropower. It is the sun that warms up the ocean to move water around to create wave energy.
The sun is our most reliable and most abundant sources of clean energy.
Do you know that the energy from the sun radiates onto the Earth in one hour is enough for use by the entire human population for one whole year?
If we could capture all the energy from the sun, we would not need any fossil fuel or nuclear energy. The sun’s energy is enough for electricity generation, heating, cooling, transportation, agricultural activities, and all industrial processes.
Technically we could meet all our energy needs by increasing solar energy generation capacity alone.
Solar panel costs have fallen by about 90% between 2010 and 2019, with global solar energy generation capacity rising by 14 times from 40 GW to 580 GW.
Figure 3 shows the dramatic increase in solar energy generation capacity between the years 2000 and 2021, and then the projection to the year 2025.
Onshore and offshore wind has developed rapidly in the last 10 years and their costs have fallen rapidly too, with wind turbines growing in size, power, and efficiency.
Figure 4 shows a similarly dramatic increase in wind energy generation capacity between the years 2000 and 2021, and then the projection to the year 2025.
According to International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the installed solar and wind energy generation capacities in the year 2021 are 849 GW and 825 GW respectively, together they were about 10% of global total energy generation.
If solar energy generation capacity can increase by 14 times in the next 10 years, like the last 10 years, all fossil fuels can be replaced by clean energy before 2040.
Net-Negative targets are challenging for many countries, but they are achievable targets.
So, be bold with climate actions, be more ambitious, be the “Earth-Protector”, and go Net-Negative!
Click to read the blog Hydrogen – The Critical Missing Piece of Clean Energy Transition?