We are, by April 2022, 25 months into the global COVID-19 pandemic which was declared officially by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 Mar 2020.
In many parts of the world, lives have come back to almost like the pre-pandemic normal. People have gone back to offices to work at least for some workdays instead of working from home. Students have gone back to schools for face-to-face learning. International borders are open in many countries.
So, are we in the COVID-19 endemic yet?
COVID-19 Mortality Rate
One important measure is the COVID-19 mortality rate or death rate, compared with the seasonal flu mortality rate of 0.1%.
The global COVID-19 mortality rate has dropped quite drastically from more than 5% at the start of the pandemic to around 0.29% as of 4 Apr 2022.
Figure 1 shows that the global COVID-19 mortality rates are moving much closer to that of seasonal flu than 4-6 months ago.
What about individual countries?
Figures 2 to 6 show that, as of 4 Apr 2022, Australia, France, and Japan have mortality rates of 0.05%, 0.08%, and 0.12% respectively – which are lower than or comparable with that of seasonal flu, whereas the UK and the US have death rates of 0.41% and 1.76% – which are still considerably higher than that of seasonal flu.
Notably, France, the UK, and the US have removed most COVID-19 restrictions including the mask mandate recently. In Australia and Japan, people are either required or expected to wear a face mask in some settings.
So, COVID-19 mortality rates in some countries have already dropped to a level comparable with that of seasonal flu.
COVID-19 Diagnosis
Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and Rapid Antigen Testing (RAT) diagnostic technologies have been well established and widely accepted. However, PCR testing still has a waiting time of 1 day or more. RAT testing is quick, convenient, and can be done anywhere, but each test still costs more than A$5 (US$3).
Is it possible to have a new diagnostic methodology that costs less than A$5 and can provide results instantly with high accuracy of more than 95% and is also as quick and convenient as RAT?
Can our scientists and innovators improve diagnostic methodology further?
Imagine if there is a COVID-19 diagnostic methodology that is as simple as a litmus test of our saliva.
Then, our hospitals, aged care, and other healthcare facilities can be “COVID-19 free” because a daily (or more frequently) diagnostic regime can be implemented at these facilities. Those most vulnerable people in these facilities will be protected from infections.
With improved diagnostic methodology, our world can move towards the endemic phase faster.
ResApp, an Australian start-up, has a smartphone-based diagnostic program that uses machine learning algorithms to detect COVID-19 infection by recording and analysing a person’s cough with a detection rate as high as 92% in initial trials. Pfizer was so impressed they paid A$100m to acquire the business. We hope their clinical trials will be successful and that the smartphone App can be granted approval for commercial use soon.
Vaccination
The vaccination rate is another important measure because vaccination is our best defence against COVID-19 infection.
We have to continue to increase vaccination rates globally, especially among the poorer nations. No one in the world is safe until everyone is safe. The Covax scheme continues to play a critical role in the global vaccination program.
Global vaccination rates have sped up since the end of 2021. Many countries have started to administer third or even fourth booster vaccines for their vulnerable population.
Check out the WHO Global Vaccination Dashboard for the most recent report.
Pfizer and Moderna are starting trials of an Omicron version of their vaccine. They are also working on a combined flu and COVID-19 vaccine in preparation for COVID-19 entering the endemic phase.
We hope these vaccines can be rolled out to the general public soon.
Jab-free Skin Patch Vaccine?
We know the challenge of delivering vaccines to many parts of the world because they require to be stored in an extremely low-temperature environment.
What about a COVID-19 vaccine comes in a skin patch stored at room temperature?
The skin patch vaccine can then be mailed to all of us for self-administering at home. No need for doctors and nurses to administer the vaccine. They can do their other important healthcare work. This may also help to reduce vaccine hesitancy for those who do not want to be jabbed.
Some companies are in different stages of developing skin patches.
Emergex, a UK company, has started clinical trials of its skin patch COVID-19 vaccine in Switzerland after approval was granted at the end-2021 for its small skin patch with microneedles.
Vaxxas, an Australian company, is set to launch clinical trials of its skin patch COVID-19 vaccine in mid-2022.
We hope their clinical trials will be successful and we will see these skin patches in the commercial market soon.
COVID-19 Treatment
Another important consideration for endemic is that the healthcare system will not be overloaded by COVID-19 cases, putting the healthcare system and workforce under stress and depriving other patients of getting other healthcare treatments.
The vast majority of people who are infected with COVID-19 are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms.
Countries will need to continue to monitor the infection cases that require hospital care to make sure any surge in cases will not overload the healthcare system.
For those vulnerable who are infected, there are antiviral drugs to help prevent them from becoming very sick. Among these drugs, Pfizer’s Paxlovid has been shown in trials to have a very high efficacy of nearly 90% in high-risk people.
For those who do not generate an adequate immune response to vaccination, AstraZeneca’s Evusheld, the first COVID-19 antibody therapy, has received provisional approval for use in some countries such as the US and Australia.
These are all very positive developments.
End of Pandemic in 2022?
While the officials from the WHO have warned that it is too early to treat COVID-19 as an endemic disease, many countries such as Denmark, the UK, Spain, and the USA have lifted most of their COVID-19 restrictions by April 2022.
Every country needs to learn to live with COVID-19 in its own unique way striking a fine balance between saving lives and saving livelihood while minimising the impact on the economy and health.
The world will win this war against COVID-19.
We have good reasons to be optimistic. Vaccination and booster rates are up. So many exciting new developments in COVID-19 diagnosis, jab-free vaccine, and COVID-19 treatments.
Hope the WHO will declare the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022, maybe by mid-2022, in the most optimistic scenario.
World Healthcare Worker Day?
And, what about designating the day the WHO declares the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 as the “World Healthcare Worker Day”?
This is to pay tribute to all our healthcare workers and remind all of us of the importance of getting prepared for the next pandemic.
Want to read more about COVID-19-related blogs? Click COVID-19 Living and Life.